🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still